Circana, LLC released its revised 2026 outlook for the U.S. food and beverage (F&B) retail sector. The update points toward continued volume tightness amid ongoing demand challenges. 

Meanwhile, price expectations are expected to moderate due to evolving price trends and notable shifts in consumer behavior. Circana now expects total retail F&B dollar sales growth to range from 2% to 4% in 2026.

Circana’s revised forecast projects price/mix growth between 2% and 4%, while volume sales are anticipated to be flat or slightly negative. Although recent policy changes have provided some tariff relief, rising supply costs in packaged goods continue. The retail environment, marked by intense price competition and the adoption of AI-supported technology, is helping to keep price growth in check even as cost pressures persist.

Consumer confidence remains weak, prompting shoppers, especially in low- and middle-income groups, to pull back on discretionary spending and focus more on price-value optimization. Premiumization is likely to slow, and value-seeking behaviors are intensifying.

Fresh categories are poised for higher demand, driven by healthy living trends and increased attention to product ingredients, as well as the growing influence of weight-loss drugs. 

“Our revised 2026 outlook reflects a market that is tightening and more challenging, but not without growth vectors,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor at Circana. “While pricing pressures and cautious consumer sentiment are shaping a more measured growth trajectory, the food and beverage sector continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability. Brands and retailers that prioritize affordability, channel flexibility, and personalized experiences will be best positioned to succeed in 2026’s competitive landscape.”

Circana expects F&B value sales across Europe to continue to grow around 4% in 2026, mirroring trends seen through 2025. This anticipated growth will be primarily driven by deeper levels of promotion to support sales velocity and the continued expansion of private labels, now accounting for 44% of F&B value — an increase from 41% three years ago.

In the ANZ region, Circana projects unit sales to accelerate by 2.5% in 2026. The improvement in the consumer and economic environment will support spending. Increased demand, amid spikes in price/mix, will nudge value growth upwards of 6% and help to offset slowing population growth. Food and beverages are expected to propel growth in both Australia and New Zealand, although the growth gap with non-food will narrow. 

Circana expects the F&B market to remain resilient but notes that growth will be more nuanced as consumers continue to seek value and navigate ongoing economic uncertainty. Brands that effectively balance pricing, innovation, and consumer empathy will be best positioned for success in 2026.

About Circana
Circana is a leader in providing technology, AI, and data to fast-moving consumer packaged goods companies, durables manufacturers, and retailers seeking to optimize their businesses. Circana’s predictive analytics and technology empower clients to measure their market share, understand the underlying consumer behavior driving it, and accelerate their growth. Circana’s Liquid Data® technology platform is powered by an expansive, high-quality data set and intelligent algorithms trained on six decades of domain expertise. With Circana, clients can take immediate action to future-proof and evolve their growth strategies amid anana increasingly complex, fast-paced, and ever-changing economy.