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New Frozen Food Data Shows Drop in Sales After COVID-19 Stockpiling Peak/Dip/Rise Through Mid-April

By Michael Costa
Grocery Chill Case
April 23, 2020

Earlier this week, I posted refrigerated and frozen food sales numbers from research firm IRI for the week ending April 5, which showed a rise in purchases again after a dip from the early March COVID-19 stockpiling frenzy that sent sales skyrocketing and disrupted the cold food supply chain. The year-over-year (YOY) numbers compared to 2019 continue to be astronomical despite the dip. 

New numbers from NCSolutions for the week ending April 18 support the trend that many cold foods are still selling strong, focusing on frozen food categories in particular. Week-over-week numbers showed a decline in most frozen categories, which NCSolutions attributes to slower Easter weekend shopping when many stores were closed for the holiday. Frozen breaded chicken saw the only gain, at +54% YOY, compared to +41% the previous week. Frozen whipped topping saw the biggest decline at -59% YOY, compared to +88% the previous week. 

While this isn't a comprehensive list of products (no frozen item has seen a bigger gain than cookie dough (+574%) since early March, according to IRI's research) combined with the IRI research, it's a useful snapshot to see which basic frozen products consumers are replenishing after the initial round of panic buying. Given the precipitous drop in frozen whipped topping, households that purchased that item probably have enough for the rest of the year or longer. 

Below is a list of several frozen food categories comparing the most recent YOY sales (4/5 - 4/11) to the YOY sales from 4/12 - 4/18:

CATEGORY - YEAR OVER YEAR                    4/11 SALES        4/18 SALES

FROZEN APPETIZER
FROZEN BAGELS
FROZEN BAKED GOODS
FROZEN BREADED CHICKEN
FROZEN BREAKFAST ENTREE
FROZEN BREAKFAST SANDWICH
FROZEN CREAMERS
FROZEN ENTREES
FROZEN FRUIT
FROZEN GRAVY AND SAUCE
FROZEN JUICE
FROZEN PASTA
FROZEN PIZZA
FROZEN PIZZA CRUST
FROZEN POTATOES/ONION RINGS
FROZEN SANDWICHES 
FROZEN SAUSAGE
FROZEN SEAFOOD
FROZEN SOUP CHILI STEW
FROZEN SWEET GOODS
FROZEN TOASTER PASTRIES
FROZEN VEGETABLES
FROZEN WAFFLES/PANCAKES
FROZEN WHIPPED TOPPING
+51%
+32%
+61%
+41%
+7%
+22%
-15%
+7%
+28%
+29%
+68%
+55%
+44%
+15%
+43%
+27%
+41%
+43%
+14%
+87%
+49%
+37%
+16%
+88%
+43%
+6%
-12%
+54%
-2%
+16%
-40%
+3%
+9%
-28%
+15%
+27%
+32%
+3%
+14%
+19%
+19%
+7%
+6%
-45%
+24%
-5%
+9%
-59%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Click here for more COVID-19 coverage and how it is affecting the refrigerated and frozen foods industry. 

KEYWORDS: COVID-19 frozen foods market trends frozen foods sales grocery shoppers grocery trends NCSolutions

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Michael costa 200

Michael Costa is former Editor-in-Chief of Refrigerated & Frozen Foods and FOOD ENGINEERING. Previously, he was Editorial Director of Hotel F&B magazine for 12 years, covering the business of food and beverage in lodging, including restaurants, bars, catering and more, for readers working in hotels, casinos and cruise ships. During his time at Hotel F&B, he guided the publication to six FOLIO: magazine Eddie awards. Before joining Hotel F&B in 2007, Michael attended culinary school at the Illinois Institute of Art while working in the kitchen and in F&B purchasing at the 1,218-room Sheraton Grand Chicago. Prior to that, he worked for six years in TV news as a reporter at network affiliates around the country. Michael is a journalism graduate of Columbia College in Chicago.

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