Ten leading global online grocery markets are predicted to experience combined growth of $227 billion, at an annual rate of 20%, by 2023, according to new figures unveiled by IGD, UK.

As the global leader in grocery e-commerce, China will grow at a 31% CAGR over the next five years, taking market share from 3.8% to 11.2%. Over the next five years, the Chinese online grocery market will grow by the same size as the entire combined market of all 10 countries in 2018.

IGD also forecasts extensive growth in the United States with online set to more than double its market share, driven by the rapid expansion of pick-up points, Instacart’s expansion and integration of online delivery businesses. Market share will grow to 3.5%, creating an additional $37 billion opportunity for U.S. retailers and manufacturers.

Research shows that around the globe, online grocery market growth is being driven by the twin enablers of rapidly evolving shopper expectations and exciting tech innovations. Shopper expectations of price, quality, choice, convenience, speed, personalization, health, information and empowerment are changing fast, and the online channel is well placed to deliver against these.

“China, Japan and South Korea are the Asian markets leading the way in online grocery shopping, and we’re seeing significant market share penetration in these three countries,” says Shirley Zhu, IGD Asia’s program director. “They lead the way globally in terms of market share, and in 2023, all three will be nearing double-digit share for online grocery, with South Korea over 14%. The acceleration of online and offline integration has been accentuated by partnerships between e-commerce players and brick-and-mortar retailers. Physical retailers in China, having recognized the importance of the online and digital channel, are collaborating with e-commerce and delivery partners to offer more targeted ranges, promotions and expanding their omni-channel presence. It’s for this reason China comes out on top globally with value growth of $145.4 billion predicted by 2023.”

“The U.S. online grocery market has experienced a rapid pace of growth this year, driven by expanding services and new entrants,” adds Stewart Samuel, IGD’s North American program director. “We’re seeing a major focus on offering same-day delivery with many companies partnering with Instacart to scale up quickly, including Aldi. Target acquired Shipt, enabling it to move its same-day delivery plans forward by about two years. Plated and Home Chef meal kit companies were acquired by Albertsons and Kroger respectively, enabling them to offer a multi-channel solution in the category, and we’re also seeing a strong pipeline of innovation, including Walmart’s automated picking warehouse, Alphabot, Kroger’s partnership with Ocado and Albertsons’ online organic and natural foods marketplace. With all the developments in the market and the rate at which retailers are entering the channel and expanding their offers, growth for the next five years is likely to be strong.”

“We’re anticipating continued online growth opportunities across mature Western European markets. In the UK, France, Germany and Spain, we forecast above-market average growth rates for online grocery retailing, all growing market share. It provides a significant growth opportunity, as retailers and manufacturers in the region invest in personalization, ease and convenience and combining online and offline to meet a range of shopper needs,” says Jon Wright, head of retail insight EMEA.