As 2019 winds down, predictions abound on the technology advancements and innovations expected in the year ahead. However, there are several anticipated advancements, including 5G wearables, quantum computing and self-driving trucks that will NOT happen in the first year of the new decade, according to ABI Research, Oyster Bay, N.Y.
In its new white paper, “54 Technology Trends to Watch in 2020,” analysts identified 35 trends that will shape the technology market and 19 others that, although attracting huge amounts of speculation and commentary, look less likely to move the needle over the next 12 months.
"After a tumultuous 2019 that was beset by many challenges, both integral to technology markets and derived from global market dynamics, 2020 looks set to be equally challenging,” says Stuart Carlaw, chief research officer. “Knowing what won’t happen in technology in the next year is important for end-users, implementors and vendors to properly place their investments or focus their strategies.”
Here’s what won’t happen in 2020:
5G wearables. “While smartphones will dominate the 5G market in 2020, 5G wearables won’t arrive in 2020, or anytime soon,” says Stephanie Tomsett, 5G devices, smartphones and wearables analyst. “To bring 5G to wearables, specific 5G chipsets will need to be designed and components will need to be reconfigured to fit in the small form factor. That won’t begin to happen until 2024, at the earliest.”
Quantum computing. “Despite claims from Google in achieving quantum supremacy, the tech industry is still far away from the democratization of quantum computing technology,” says Lian Jye Su, artificial intelligence and machine learning principal analyst. “Quantum computing is definitely not even remotely close to the large-scale commercial deployment stage.”
Self-driving trucks. “Despite numerous headlines declaring the arrival of driverless, self-driving or robot vehicles, very little, if any, driver-free commercial usage is underway beyond closed-course operations in the United States,” says Susan Beardslee, freight transportation and logistics principal analyst.
A consolidated IoT platform market. “For many years, there have been predictions that the IoT platform supplier market will begin to consolidate, and it just won’t happen,” says Dan Shey, vice president of enabling platforms. “The simple reason is that there are more than 100 companies that offer device-to-cloud IoT platform services, and for every one that is acquired, there are always new ones that come to market.”
Edge will not overtake cloud. “The accelerated growth of the edge technology and intelligent device paradigm created one of the largest industry misconceptions—edge technology will cannibalize cloud technology,” says Kateryna Dubrova, M2M, Internet of Things and IoE analyst. “In fact, in the future, we will see a rapid development of edge-cloud-fog continuum, where technology will complement each other, rather than cross-cannibalize.”
8K TVs. “Announcements of 8K Television (TV) sets by major vendors earlier in 2019 attracted much attention and raised many of questions within the industry,” says Khin Sandi Lynn, video and cloud services analyst. “The fact is, 8K content is not available and the price of 8K TV sets are exorbitant. The transition from high-definition to 4K will continue in 2020 with very limited 8K shipments – less than 1 million worldwide.”